2008: Democrats.
Monday, February 25th, 2008It’s been a fascinating year in politics, particularly for those of us who follow these sorts of things and are familiar with the historical trends. People will be talking about this primary season for generations, on the Democratic side especially but the Republican side as well, as the year that bucked every trend, confounded every conventional wisdom, and has completely flipped the direction each party was headed in before 2006. For the Democrats, this meant overturning the centrist triangulation of the Clinton/Gore2000 era, overcoming the mantra of “electability through blandness”, and nominating old guard party members whether they are the best candidate or not (from Mondale to Kerry). Much of this was thanks not a change in party mindset, though DNC Chairman Howard Dean and his 50-state strategy in 06 helped quite a bit, but to the internet finally coming of age politically - these tubes are finally old enough to have a say.
If not for the Obama campaign’s perfection of Dean’s ‘04 “netroots” activism tactics, Hillary Clinton would without a doubt be the Democratic Presidential nominee. But Obama’s success in this area has not only earned him somewhere in the region of $200 million so far (in the PRIMARIES for christ’s sake!), but more importantly from just shy of one million individual donors so far. These are previously unimaginable numbers, but with a trifecta of Obama’s message connecting with many people on an individual level, the campaign’s unmatched ability to organize on a grassroots level, and the ease of donating money through the internet, they have been able to show what a dinosaur the previously-formidable Clinton machine is and drop the metaphoric meteor on them, watching them slowly choke and die in the changing atmosphere.
Now even dinosaurs don’t die without a fight, as we can see with the Clinton campaign today (allegedly) circulating a photo of Obama in traditional Somali garb - which looks to Americans more like Muslim gear - and Hillary herself mocking Obama supporters as delusional people expecting “celestial choirs will be singing” when Obama is elected. And their inability to go quietly into that good night is what will ensure their irrelevance from here on out. Bill Clinton has done irreparable damage to his legacy with his race-baiting in South Carolina, and Hillary is possibly doing the same type of damage to her still-young Senate career with everything else. They are going all in on a bluff, an expectation that by throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Obama that they’ll find something that sticks. It hasn’t yet, and it won’t now that he’s the frontrunner by a wide margin.
Everyone else was able to bow out gracefully when it was clear there was no reasonable path to the nomination, from Dodd to Kucinich to Richardson to Edwards. Clinton is unable to do the same so far. We’ll see how she reacts after March 4th when she doesn’t win both OH and TX by the wide (20 points or more) margins that she needs to stay in the race delegate-wise. In fact, I’m going to guess she won’t even win TX. And OH is still up in the air.
I’ll save real reflections for when it’s officially decided - hell, anything can happen, if this race has shown us anything so far. But I predict anything but a graceful exit from Mrs Clinton if and when the time comes, especially if that time is anywhere after March 5th. And from that point onward in the world of politics, I think we’ll be referring to the Clintons’ relevance in the past tense.